This study examines the effect of seaborne trade on unemployment rate in Nigeria between 1981 and 2024. The specific objectives were to ascertain the effects of crude oil trade, dry bulk trade, cargo throughput, and vessel turnaround time on unemployment rate. Time series data for each variable were obtained from annual reports and accounts of the Nigerian Ports Authority, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank of Nigeria, United Nation Development Programmes (UNDP)and the World Development Indicators (WDI). The ADF unit root test results showed that the variables were mixed-integrated, with cargo throughput being integrated of order zero, I(0), while the other variables were integrated of order one, I(1). The study found that crude oil trade positively influences unemployment rates in both the short and long term. Although the short-term impact is significant at the 5% level, the long-term effect is not. This suggests that an increase in crude oil trade is associated with higher unemployment in Nigeria. The study revealed that that dry bulk trade negatively affects unemployment in both the short- and long-run. The study revealed that vessel turnaround time exhibits varying effects on unemployment in both the short and long-run. Specifically, the short-term results show that an increase in vessel turnaround time significantly lowers unemployment. The study found that there is evidence of a mixed effect of vessel turnaround time on unemployment rate in both the short and long run. The study revealed that in the short-run results, vessel turnaround time significantly reduced the unemployment rate, indicating that a percentage increase in vessel
turnaround time is associated with a 0.5595 decrease in the unemployment rate. On the other hand, the unemployment rate is positively and significantly influenced by the vessel turnaround time in the long run. Given the findings, this study concluded that seaborne trade (especially the use of dry bulk trade and cargo throughput), presents an important enabler of economic development in Nigeria. Based on the findings and conclusion, this study recommends that government should ensure that dry bulk trade and cargo throughput growth policies are consistent with economic development objectives towards reducing unemployment in Nigeria. Government should provide incentives (tax holidays, export rebates) for businesses engaged in dry bulk exports, promote crude oil trade for agricultural and manufactured goods and work assiduously to achieve the global best practices for vessel turnaround time in Nigeria ports.
